Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c88fd8475461d12d7a96f6789771b47ccc2e9dd65c6e1ab5bea595f0f2554d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 40c | 1,451$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.39 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 65c | 1,395$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.34 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 60c | 1,123$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.49 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 60c | 1,012$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.3 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 30c | 738.37$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.64 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked No | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 60c | 399.98$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.99 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Yes | 59c | 367.7$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.59 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e36…6ce1backed Yes | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 41c | 333$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.53 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 40c | 329.66$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.26 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Yes | 60c | 292$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Yes | 61c | 230.52$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffe2…2957backed No | 44c | 173.39$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Yes | 61c | 170.6$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 40c | 145.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Yes | 62c | 134$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 38c | 133.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes | 59c | 97.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Yes | 58c | 88.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 59c | 85.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 59c | 84.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 61c | 71.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 68c | 58.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…ecebbacked No | 40c | 50.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…f23abacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Yes | 59c | 49.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Yes | 58c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…f4e4backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Yes | 58c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…be9fbacked No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Yes | 59c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Yes | 51c | 34.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked No | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed No | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Yes | 53c | 30.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed No | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked No | 38c | 28.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked No | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Yes | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked No | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…1161backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…8383backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked No | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Yes | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 61c | 19.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.