Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf36c991da53c622bd5a98d0f7b3be51f99d89fcbfd82cb60e71d5d80a6c5f331
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99ec…0da5backed Over | 58c | 1,229$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 32c | 958.73$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.77 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…f819backed Under | 40c | 761.56$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.94 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 755.04$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.43 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 61c | 609.23$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.09 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 40c | 571.17$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.7 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 60c | 534.92$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.95 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 33c | 163.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 49c | 162.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 40c | 144.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 76c | 140.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 24c | 138.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 60c | 123.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 49c | 112.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…f56fbacked Over | 50c | 105.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Under | 76c | 102.67$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 40c | 77.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Over | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 38c | 71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 68.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecb…1243backed Over | 61c | 64.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 36c | 63.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 49c | 56.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Under | 44c | 52.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Under | 40c | 50.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…8fbfbacked Over | 61c | 50.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 43c | 48.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 63c | 44.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28af…7de0backed Over | 61c | 43.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 41.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Over | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 63c | 38.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Over | 36c | 38.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 61c | 29.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 60c | 29.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 59c | 26.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 76c | 22.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 52c | 19.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…fddbbacked Over | 63c | 19.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 68cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Over | 61c | 16.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5Under won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.