Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27dcbc2f04b3554b91c0afc8d7e430744e41a7d4a79e6d88ab7746707bcf4b67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 53c | 9,440$5,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,003.2 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 5,290$2,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,947.11 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 4,657$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,469.11 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf541…ac67backed Over | 80c | 1,235$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 26c | 957.24$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.33 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Over | 72c | 694.99$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 46c | 579.15$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.11 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 36c | 431.52$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.35 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 428.47$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.42 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 55c | 288.92$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.91 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…3841backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 39c | 162.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.03 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 68c | 147.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 60c | 131.08$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 49c | 109.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 28c | 109.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed Over | 54c | 91.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…8cf6backed Over | 54c | 90.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…8027backed Over | 19c | 85.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 38c | 66.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Over | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 64c | 61.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce2…9787backed Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed Over | 41c | 53.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Over | 32c | 47.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 79c | 44.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 48c | 44.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 80c | 37.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 46c | 36.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ffbebacked Over | 57c | 35.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…56e5backed Over | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Over | 37c | 28.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf751…e6dbbacked Over | 54c | 25.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 57c | 19.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 68c | 16.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.