Fifa International · resolved market
Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd5002e63f3e752aec3c87669440de1cbd4b0abcc44cec33349a18bc5e00c2b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 42c | 2,862$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.38 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 2,640$1,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940.89 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Under | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 279 | 31.9%89 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 67c | 1,710$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.73 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 17c | 1,499$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.17 | 454 | 21.4%97 W · 357 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcf…e455backed Under | 61c | 1,045$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.45 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 38c | 1,009$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.73 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 20c | 529.52$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.52 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 487.69$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.49 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 16c | 335.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.16 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 11c | 300$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 226 | 34.1%77 W · 149 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 66c | 270.72$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.03 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 20c | 240$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 80c | 240$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 331 | 20.8%69 W · 262 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 8c | 171.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf0…72cebacked Under | 60c | 165.81$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 80c | 131$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 64c | 92.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…af24backed Under | 68c | 78.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 26c | 76.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec6…b86cbacked Over | 37c | 67.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 376 | 50.8%191 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Over | 18c | 60.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 184 | 35.3%65 W · 119 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 21c | 59.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 203 | 30.5%62 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…dc9cbacked Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 80c | 55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa681…8b89backed Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 270 | 28.9%78 W · 192 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc220…5012backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 296 | 36.1%107 W · 189 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ffbebacked Over | 63c | 48.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 594 | 53.4%317 W · 277 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 74c | 44.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Under | 65c | 43.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 39.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed Under | 79c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 242 | 57.9%140 W · 102 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…839bbacked Under | 62c | 16.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 3.5this page
- Moldova vs. Bulgaria: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 0.5Over won
- Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 1.5Over won
- Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 2.5Over won
- Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 4.5Under won
- Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Bulgaria (-1.5)Moldova won
- Spread: Bulgaria (-2.5)Moldova won
- Spread: Moldova (-1.5)Bulgaria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.