MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb17d2880dd761ed04840bef9f15c344bc92e0e0cbf87f8e607700fe57b562e96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 4,015$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.86 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 27c | 2,754$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 1,670$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.01 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 70c | 1,544$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.65 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 1,458$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.52 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 1,400$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Chicago Cubs | 19c | 1,233$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.79 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 1,162$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.02 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 1,011$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.39 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 946.69$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.79 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 807.83$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.05 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 579.38$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.54 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 79c | 564.66$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.43 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…aa8fbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 413.35$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.94 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 388.61$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.44 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 331.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 283.12$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.83 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Chicago Cubs | 22c | 261.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Chicago Cubs | 27c | 258.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5672backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed San Francisco Giants | 69c | 248$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 221.34$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 140$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 128.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 25c | 123.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Chicago Cubs | 27c | 86.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed San Francisco Giants | 74c | 74.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 74.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95fa…bf35backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 72.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Chicago Cubs | 18c | 58.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago Cubs | 21c | 56.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 24c | 52.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…e4f6backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 51.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -9.2wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 49.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 49.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked San Francisco Giants | 71c | 48.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 47.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -12.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed San Francisco Giants | 78c | 44.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dc37backed Chicago Cubs | 31c | 44.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 37.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 35.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…5911backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 24.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…67fabacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked San Francisco Giants | 68c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed San Francisco Giants | 74c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.