TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,450
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,293

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,450 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants14c1,824$258 inLost-$257.6412,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs75c1,462$1,103 inWon+$359.0611,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed San Francisco Giants20c835$167 inLost-$16730340.6%123 W · 180 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs77c702.16$538 inWon+$163.86,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed San Francisco Giants23c652.16$150 inLost-$15087850.5%443 W · 435 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x287d…38febacked San Francisco Giants28c414.18$116 inLost-$115.977126.8%19 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Chicago Cubs69c396$274 inWon+$121.964,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked Chicago Cubs70c214.29$150 inWon+$64.293775.7%28 W · 9 L+7.4wins+0.20per pick56cpaid+36.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs69c199.78$139 inWon+$61.28,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Chicago Cubs69c188.38$130 inWon+$58.443560%261 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd208…2751backed San Francisco Giants31c126.78$40 inLost-$39.8717446%80 W · 94 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants32c123.79$40 inLost-$39.575,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed San Francisco Giants32c100$32 inLost-$3268942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants24c80.52$19 inLost-$19.053,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed San Francisco Giants31c65$20 inLost-$20.151,14146.3%528 W · 613 L+36.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants24c57.36$14 inLost-$13.715,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Chicago Cubs80c51.88$41 inWon+$10.575942.4%25 W · 34 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs71c30$21 inWon+$8.751,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs77c24.45$19 inWon+$5.586,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Chicago Cubs75c22.84$17 inWon+$5.611,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs66c20$13 inWon+$6.82,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82aa…fe2fbacked Chicago Cubs78c19.5$15 inWon+$4.2915143.7%66 W · 85 L-12.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.