MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1814c209a60b197d4591fbb2305adea2589b372bcde7613845fb034dda021bd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Over | 42c | 99,472$41,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,778.23 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 58c | 88,888$51,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,332.96 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 58c | 12,523$7,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,277.14 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 3,761$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,646.07 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 2,413$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.84 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 54c | 1,800$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 1,400$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 31c | 1,275$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Over | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -12.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 686.94$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.12 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 43c | 634.51$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 533.14$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.18 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a5…cd84backed Over | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 43c | 432.35$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.91 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 42c | 380$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 374.68$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 22c | 297.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…5338backed Over | 43c | 286.05$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 43c | 234$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…accbbacked Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…164bbacked Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…e4f6backed Over | 43c | 200.3$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -9.2wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 146.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Over | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 44c | 108.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95fa…bf35backed Over | 43c | 103.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 53c | 102.45$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 64c | 99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 86.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Over | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 76.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199f…b36abacked Over | 47c | 76.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 57c | 76.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…d5fdbacked Over | 43c | 72.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 36c | 68.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 54c | 57.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe346…3071backed Under | 59c | 55.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 42c | 50.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…67fabacked Over | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Under | 58c | 44.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…9384backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…4928backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.