Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f2db3812ced13781178ce43c435c6f9f6f6970041a46ecda63af881f33c73c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 57c | 4,303$2,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,434.89 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 3,005$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.62 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 34c | 2,483$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.73 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 835.23$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.3 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 68c | 625.45$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.11 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 41c | 377.44$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.3 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 15c | 368.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 13c | 350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…5b9ebacked Under | 62c | 336.47$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 18c | 307.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 19c | 300.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Over | 51c | 281.47$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.92 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 68c | 269.09$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 25c | 227.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 75c | 223.23$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 19c | 215$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.15 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f3…1732backed Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 62c | 199.45$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…822fbacked Under | 57c | 180.21$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Under | 66c | 173$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddc…6796backed Under | 50c | 172.66$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…609fbacked Under | 7c | 170.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 33c | 168.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 63c | 160.54$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 36c | 158.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 38c | 150.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 65c | 144.75$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Under | 11c | 135.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 21c | 133.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.82 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 33c | 123.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.82 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 55c | 123.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 46c | 123.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…21cbbacked Over | 47c | 110.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +228%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Under | 23c | 101$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 46c | 94.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed Under | 54c | 91.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 27c | 81.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 42c | 79.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Over | 50c | 77.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 41 | 87.8%36 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…aac5backed Over | 39c | 76.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 36c | 73.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Over | 27c | 70.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 36c | 49.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 30c | 47.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked Over | 30c | 46.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…a0c9backed Under | 69c | 36.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Under | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 60c | 32.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x447e…ba40backed Under | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x708e…d03fbacked Over | 42c | 27.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4812…8758backed Over | 76c | 24.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Under | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5this page
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.