Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bb85a84b707f7e15a39d37052d97ba65f68349ef07c6bc0a715baf3fff713b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed55…00afbacked Under | 67c | 2,976$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 49c | 1,267$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.05 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 1,247$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.5 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…8e52backed Under | 67c | 1,094$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 43c | 1,044$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.53 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 879.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 677.39$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.82 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 38c | 503$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.4 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 42c | 357.38$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.85 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 62c | 319.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Under | 33c | 290.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…d57ebacked Over | 69c | 285.13$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.87 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 37c | 280.86$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.95 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 39c | 244.15$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.78 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 238.86$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.06 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Over | 48c | 211.36$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.91 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 68c | 201.93$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 35c | 195.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba8…cdb3backed Under | 62c | 181.03$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 63c | 132$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…a708backed Over | 39c | 130.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 37c | 130.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 38c | 126.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 32c | 114.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 38c | 101.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 39c | 99.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 38c | 96.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3b…e3eabacked Over | 71c | 82.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 81.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Over | 34c | 61.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Over | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 32c | 56.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Under | 34c | 56.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Over | 34c | 56.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…30cfbacked Under | 60c | 52.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb3…78e9backed Over | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 49.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 38c | 48.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 68c | 47.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 32c | 40.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…49e1backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Over | 64c | 38.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed Over | 34c | 36.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 49c | 33.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a24…36ddbacked Under | 32c | 31.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…aac5backed Over | 69c | 31.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…261ebacked Over | 67c | 29.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Over | 38c | 27.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 63c | 21.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 55c | 20.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 69c | 19.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…8afcbacked Over | 67c | 17.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +72%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5this page
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.