Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x974bda049a121bf2452f4cc98276581ff57ced729268f4d38aae1ef13d409275
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 38c | 3,033$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.57 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 61c | 2,939$1,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.99 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 2,578$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.98 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 20c | 2,198$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.94 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 1,322$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.53 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 61c | 801.85$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.59 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 61c | 640.39$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 20c | 631.54$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.96 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 70c | 499.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 28c | 461.78$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.88 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7574…9be2backed Over | 60c | 421.31$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 62c | 315.58$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.15 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa80f…4fa0backed Over | 62c | 153.36$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…a708backed Over | 62c | 141.69$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 39c | 125$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 39c | 125$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 39c | 125$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…aac5backed Over | 62c | 122.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 109.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 19c | 109.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…1b63backed Over | 56c | 104.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 61c | 98.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 14c | 95.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 72c | 94.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 66c | 76.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0185…3735backed Under | 20c | 66.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 62c | 63.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 61c | 58.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 31c | 58.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 31c | 58.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 31c | 58.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Under | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 75c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 71c | 33.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 54c | 29.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…d3cbbacked Over | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba8…cdb3backed Under | 38c | 26.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 77c | 24.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed Under | 46c | 24.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…edb9backed Over | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -7.6wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…fddbbacked Over | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 68cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 61c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Over | 61c | 19.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…ec90backed Over | 61c | 16.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5this page
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.