Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Bochum vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x048e9c86f4d7ddfa9eb19b3b67f54d9b8fa755de62e702ea07afd749ef9678c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Under | 0c | 21,302$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +13.0wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +72%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 43c | 11,060$4,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,345.97 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 10,370$5,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,190.23 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 1c | 4,609$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,971$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.32 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 1,140$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.98 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 963.7$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.33 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 42c | 680.02$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.05 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 59c | 628.22$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.57 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 42c | 572.87$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.61 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 43c | 451.92$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.8 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…7928backed Over | 57c | 449.67$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…cb68backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Under | 23c | 191.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 40c | 188.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191a…b47dbacked Under | 10c | 151.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 8cpaid | +300%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 50c | 145.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 142.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Over | 56c | 132$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 47c | 117.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.52 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 24c | 99.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Under | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 18c | 69.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 60c | 68.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 58c | 67.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 59c | 49.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Under | 41c | 45.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 51c | 44.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 39c | 39.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 63c | 39.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Over | 58c | 35.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Over | 62c | 34.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 34.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…56e5backed Over | 51c | 30.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…8fbfbacked Over | 60c | 29.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 52c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…fddbbacked Over | 63c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 68cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Bochum vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-2.5)VfL Bochum won
- VfL Bochum vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Bochum vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Bochum vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.