Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Bochum vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f9d16b3413ad70398df6757893596cab34868154415904c919f1ce4c364894e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 58c | 1,267$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.86 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 59c | 1,030$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.03 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 955.69$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.58 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 49c | 880.95$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.79 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 61c | 420.49$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 38c | 382.29$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.21 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 356$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.77 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 29c | 353.63$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.02 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 71c | 352$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Under | 46c | 269.33$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Over | 33c | 227$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…32f8backed Over | 58c | 194.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Over | 30c | 121.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 75c | 112.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 59c | 110.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 27c | 106.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 77c | 102.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Over | 15c | 100.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 20c | 95.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 77c | 69.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 61c | 60.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 40c | 60.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Under | 42c | 55.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Over | 29c | 54.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 52cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 78c | 52.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 39c | 50.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 39c | 37.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 65c | 29.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 23.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b5…56abbacked Under | 47c | 22.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Over | 58c | 21.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 51c | 21.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 61c | 16.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 68c | 16.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Bochum vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-2.5)VfL Bochum won
- VfL Bochum vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Bochum vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Bochum vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfL Bochum vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.