Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x870d9b1c8a57ae02bfd9bd4c5a3ca2dc9859fdc24977ea6a8d341363f2e23ed2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chileof Portugal, Chile
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Portugal | 9c | 4,169$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.33 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Portugal | 23c | 1,365$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.4 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Portugal | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e5…d3c7backed Portugal | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Chile | 62c | 999.98$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.99 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Portugal | 33c | 964.73$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.19 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Portugal | 33c | 841.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.24 | 363 | 49.3%179 W · 184 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…49d2backed Chile | 67c | 804.74$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.84 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Chile | 61c | 599.99$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 374 | 51.6%193 W · 181 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…4bfabacked Chile | 61c | 595.73$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chile | 61c | 559.69$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.28 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Chile | 74c | 549.57$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.64 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Chile | 62c | 503.12$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.18 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10c…e7e2backed Portugal | 40c | 440$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…6da7backed Chile | 61c | 425.82$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.07 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…97e1backed Portugal | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Chile | 60c | 367.5$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Chile | 64c | 362.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.24 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Chile | 63c | 301.42$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.02 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Portugal | 36c | 299.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.97 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Portugal | 38c | 293.64$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.97 | 199 | 35.2%70 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84bc…4aadbacked Portugal | 39c | 267.79$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Portugal | 33c | 257.57$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Chile | 65c | 205.53$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Chile | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 235 | 40.4%95 W · 140 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Portugal | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 858 | 51.2%439 W · 419 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Chile | 63c | 177.53$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Portugal | 26c | 151$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 249 | 35.3%88 W · 161 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chile | 60c | 150$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Chile | 63c | 139.73$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Chile | 63c | 124.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 354 | 51.4%182 W · 172 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Chile | 61c | 119$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Portugal | 33c | 107$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…bbb2backed Portugal | 44c | 103.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed Portugal | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Portugal | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Portugal | 36c | 74.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 847 | 38.8%329 W · 518 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…0350backed Portugal | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chile | 61c | 68.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…9945backed Portugal | 22c | 65.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb61c…d57dbacked Portugal | 39c | 64.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b3…0c0ebacked Portugal | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e73…9150backed Chile | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Chile | 61c | 53.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 413 | 44.1%182 W · 231 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3f…62eebacked Portugal | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Chile | 63c | 52.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1529…ba87backed Portugal | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…bb0ebacked Chile | 66c | 50.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +16.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Portugal | 39c | 46.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…b9c7backed Portugal | 39c | 38.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…c607backed Chile | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21c…3fd3backed Portugal | 39c | 33.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…ad68backed Chile | 66c | 32.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 171 | 54.4%93 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Chile | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 242 | 57.9%140 W · 102 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb730…e9c2backed Chile | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 266 | 46.2%123 W · 143 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Chile | 61c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Chile | 64c | 24.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 146 | 53.4%78 W · 68 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Chile | 64c | 22.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 315 | 50.8%160 W · 155 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…d1d3backed Chile | 69c | 21.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…9103backed Chile | 67c | 20.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Chile | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55e3…b615backed Chile | 62c | 18.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 632 | 29.3%185 W · 447 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Portugal (-2.5)this page
- Portugal vs. Chile: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 4.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Chile (-1.5)Portugal won
- Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Chile won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.