Fifa International · resolved market
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5471db47a9a42e8b392b05abe45fed199c7b8bd31573df549c876e72e483209c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 6c | 12,335$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.94 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 11c | 3,810$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.71 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 5c | 3,180$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.55 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Under | 6c | 1,298$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…6a61backed Under | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 12c | 866.89$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Under | 6c | 824.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 10c | 637.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 445 | 39.6%176 W · 269 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Under | 16c | 625$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 279 | 31.9%89 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Under | 10c | 513.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…2a81backed Under | 10c | 500.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…9945backed Under | 6c | 477.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef04…f6e3backed Under | 3c | 453.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 80c | 439.13$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.83 | 184 | 65.8%121 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 3c | 355.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 217 | 22.1%48 W · 169 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe053…fd08backed Under | 17c | 228.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 6c | 214.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 311 | 49.5%154 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6705…8184backed Under | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…92ddbacked Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…f83abacked Under | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 0.5this page
- Portugal vs. Chile: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 4.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Chile (-1.5)Portugal won
- Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Chile won
- Spread: Portugal (-2.5)Chile won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.