Fifa International · resolved market
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x774f35f3fad242139ccd1f7a451f8cfcf1c61a0388029ad88b571ec2d6833ce2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 19c | 2,131$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.1 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 7c | 1,364$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 5c | 1,292$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1d…d326backed Under | 79c | 1,092$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.42 | 219 | 46.1%101 W · 118 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…5561backed Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…a496backed Under | 76c | 868.07$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.34 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 74c | 768.64$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.85 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 26c | 715.89$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.13 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Under | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 374 | 51.6%193 W · 181 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 25c | 560$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 108 | 32.4%35 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 519.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.12 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Under | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 156 | 55.1%86 W · 70 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 75c | 498.7$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.67 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…a721backed Over | 18c | 338.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 76c | 300.58$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.14 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 75c | 215.99$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 75c | 210.46$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Over | 24c | 201.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 184 | 35.3%65 W · 119 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…e436backed Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 229 | 19.2%44 W · 185 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 206 | 26.2%54 W · 152 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…4db1backed Over | 25c | 191.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b7…c4d2backed Under | 75c | 175.75$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Over | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 31.6%36 W · 78 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc899…7652backed Under | 76c | 118.83$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…9945backed Over | 9c | 111.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Over | 18c | 103$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 77c | 90.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 187 | 69.5%130 W · 57 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 74c | 84.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 24c | 72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 592 | 30.1%178 W · 414 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 24c | 64.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3f…1422backed Over | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 24c | 44.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 136 | 43.4%59 W · 77 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…748cbacked Under | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 78c | 20.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 75c | 17.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 146 | 53.4%78 W · 68 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 74c | 14.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 4.5this page
- Portugal vs. Chile: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 0.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5Under won
- Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Chile (-1.5)Portugal won
- Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Chile won
- Spread: Portugal (-2.5)Chile won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.