Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27e997dc2d3690fb873155179f0fc4d7203e3917fbc60c8453db7f5053e69c48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 8,212$3,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,333.53 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Under | 60c | 5,157$3,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,111.6 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Over | 39c | 4,805$1,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,918 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…1dfebacked Over | 56c | 4,608$2,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 4,066$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.17 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 49c | 2,538$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.38 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 47c | 1,660$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.29 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 79c | 1,611$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.31 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Under | 42c | 1,504$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 1,180$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.01 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Under | 10c | 896.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +115%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 13c | 707.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 30c | 638.67$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.07 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7409backed Over | 77c | 554.66$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.73 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked Under | 46c | 515.35$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 70c | 499.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 265 | 48.3%128 W · 137 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 48c | 486.94$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.81 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 45c | 467.28$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.86 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b29…556ebacked Over | 50c | 388$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 26c | 367.72$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.16 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 78c | 330.7$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 20c | 313.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Over | 55c | 291.9$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.36 | 137 | 21.2%29 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 76c | 259.37$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 286 | 54.2%155 W · 131 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 28c | 243.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 48c | 229.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.59 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf293…ba11backed Over | 80c | 212.42$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 47c | 204.66$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.82 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Over | 71c | 199.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Over | 59c | 164.12$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8514…cbb0backed Over | 49c | 159.59$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 54c | 151.07$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…e801backed Over | 65c | 150.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 14c | 145.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Over | 55c | 141.53$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…0b17backed Over | 41c | 131.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 40c | 131.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 57c | 114.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 55c | 107.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb9…bb3cbacked Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +62%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 78c | 98.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce2…9787backed Over | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 556 | 54.9%305 W · 251 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 49c | 89.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 24c | 80.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 51c | 75.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…f2b7backed Over | 19c | 75.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 50c | 74.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…60d6backed Under | 36c | 73.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 21c | 68.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 40c | 64.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 45c | 60.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 46c | 58.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…3f86backed Over | 59c | 51.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Over | 29c | 51.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 38c | 50.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…efabbacked Over | 41c | 46.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Over | 65c | 45.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…6c37backed Over | 80c | 41.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x619e…0149backed Under | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 29c | 39.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…dd05backed Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6705…8184backed Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 60c | 29.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 77c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 149 | 75.8%113 W · 36 L | +26.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0e89…fb59backed Over | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Southampton FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Southampton FC won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.