TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Southampton FCof Manchester City FC, Southampton FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,959
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,083

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,959 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x50e4…1cedbacked Manchester City FC62c26,831$16,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,635.191136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Southampton FC38c23,430$8,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,526.913353.4%71 W · 62 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Southampton FC51c10,446$5,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,123.096,04745.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L-21.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6638…0b09backed Manchester City FC56c7,719$4,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,322.781637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Southampton FC59c4,312$2,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,770.624,69641.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L+21.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Southampton FC44c3,500$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,96015255.9%85 W · 67 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Southampton FC41c2,456$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.842,53047.7%1,206 W · 1,324 L+43.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc947…3462backed Manchester City FC41c2,353$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.63847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e85…9b0bbacked Manchester City FC56c2,129$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.951631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Southampton FC46c2,082$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.4220545.4%93 W · 112 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe5b6…e762backed Manchester City FC52c1,958$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.1520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-70.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Manchester City FC33c1,895$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.17440.5%30 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Manchester City FC59c1,829$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.0826444.7%118 W · 146 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Southampton FC46c1,113$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.981,40944.5%627 W · 782 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Southampton FC44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56014459%85 W · 59 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Southampton FC44c900$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50414355.9%80 W · 63 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Manchester City FC55c884.55$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.520054.5%109 W · 91 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Southampton FC44c800$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44813855.1%76 W · 62 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Manchester City FC38c781.86$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.6869742.5%296 W · 401 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc87…dd68backed Manchester City FC54c675.18$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.65632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd4…5faabacked Southampton FC50c582.55$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.561163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Manchester City FC31c557.26$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.5419244.3%85 W · 107 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…6dd7backed Manchester City FC56c503.28$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.84955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e7a…f429backed Southampton FC45c499.98$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+49.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x08c4…e6a5backed Manchester City FC57c487.63$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.573250%16 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc43c…e9e8backed Southampton FC55c473.19$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.081450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Manchester City FC55c446.33$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.175542.3%319 W · 436 L+1.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed Manchester City FC55c442.36$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.254630.4%14 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-26.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9531…18ffbacked Manchester City FC26c368.85$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.714050%20 W · 20 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x734e…5ba1backed Manchester City FC55c351.97$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.641346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c3…1ab9backed Manchester City FC56c347.82$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa79d…ee14backed Manchester City FC56c259.67$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.062661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f4d…0d5ebacked Manchester City FC54c248.5$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.19862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Manchester City FC41c235.44$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4612139.7%48 W · 73 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Manchester City FC41c235.24$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.45633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31c7…eca3backed Manchester City FC55c212.29$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.76450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e02…5ddabacked Southampton FC46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Southampton FC44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11210558.1%61 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Manchester City FC54c199.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10819834.8%69 W · 129 L-17.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-26.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Manchester City FC54c189$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0627752.3%145 W · 132 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb03…9732backed Manchester City FC55c177.19$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.297847.4%37 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d80…a4aabacked Southampton FC63c155.21$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.432100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+101.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34e9…e6c7backed Manchester City FC53c151.95$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.534641.3%19 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Southampton FC44c150$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8456158.6%329 W · 232 L+29.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Manchester City FC35c148$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.810533.3%35 W · 70 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-11.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Manchester City FC33c147.78$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.771442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Southampton FC65c144.89$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7123353.6%125 W · 108 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Manchester City FC53c129.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.899652.1%50 W · 46 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a8c…5e69backed Manchester City FC37c125.92$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.59911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick33cpaid-81.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Southampton FC46c124.19$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0610847.2%51 W · 57 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Manchester City FC53c123.72$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7185048.4%411 W · 439 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x881e…70f8backed Manchester City FC61c123.35$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd876…4c8bbacked Manchester City FC29c121.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.381136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Southampton FC39c121.31$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18ed…04cbbacked Manchester City FC31c115.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.272133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Southampton FC48c114.47$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.917327.2%47 W · 126 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Manchester City FC26c112.08$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2422443.8%98 W · 126 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3fa…cdb2backed Manchester City FC56c111.96$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.71838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Southampton FC47c109.07$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.812653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1669…1363backed Manchester City FC55c106.15$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.382638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3190…93bbbacked Manchester City FC55c106.15$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.382835.7%10 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-40%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1e46…5737backed Manchester City FC55c99.25$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5910751.4%55 W · 52 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Southampton FC44c98$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.881,58953.3%847 W · 742 L+39.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed Manchester City FC54c97.22$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2514351%73 W · 70 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Southampton FC45c93.22$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2722146.2%102 W · 119 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Manchester City FC54c90.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6211636.2%42 W · 74 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4411…20bfbacked Southampton FC54c89.55$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.925364.2%34 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9787…37dfbacked Manchester City FC22c87.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.065032%16 W · 34 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Manchester City FC47c82.4$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7335347.6%168 W · 185 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Southampton FC39c80.79$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.557847.8%276 W · 302 L+18.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Manchester City FC54c77.02$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.597045.7%32 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Southampton FC40c67.3$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.381,61534.9%564 W · 1,051 L-28.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c14…6ef9backed Manchester City FC55c66.16$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed Southampton FC53c65$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.55757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…22b6backed Manchester City FC53c64.8$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5e8…6edabacked Southampton FC47c61.8$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.751526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-46.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Manchester City FC54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.46854.4%37 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0a…50adbacked Southampton FC53c59.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ff…d0dfbacked Manchester City FC54c54.02$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.172433.3%8 W · 16 L-5.0wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-33.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Manchester City FC37c53.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.58219.5%16 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Manchester City FC40c53.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.151516.1%83 W · 432 L-49.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-38.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc8e3…05e1backed Manchester City FC55c53.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1912647.6%60 W · 66 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Southampton FC66c51.72$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.773336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d9…6c60backed Manchester City FC30c51.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.461758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee5…936dbacked Manchester City FC56c51.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.461136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Southampton FC44c48.76$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3110960.6%66 W · 43 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Manchester City FC55c48.65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7613531.1%42 W · 93 L-12.3wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-21.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa84d…bebdbacked Manchester City FC48c48.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.252250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a73…c2e5backed Manchester City FC30c47.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.377659.2%45 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61e4…fb60backed Southampton FC46c45.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8314258.5%83 W · 59 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Southampton FC68c45.64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.874644.8%334 W · 412 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1be5…9d53backed Manchester City FC56c43.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.342147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Southampton FC52c43.46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9224557.6%141 W · 104 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd480…799ebacked Manchester City FC47c41.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.368045%36 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42a6…0d41backed Southampton FC47c41.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.842100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc21d…727ebacked Manchester City FC47c41.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.363748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1fc…5da8backed Southampton FC49c40.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.761353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a0c…0852backed Manchester City FC51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.44362.8%27 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Southampton FC47c38.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.585855.2%32 W · 26 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Manchester City FC53c37.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.781,92342.4%815 W · 1,108 L-42.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.