Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20af9bb8740adb97368cc0eb04530aaf95a2aed44f8d538f1f0d35d3a6500a38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Southampton FCof Manchester City FC, Southampton FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddf4…2680backed Southampton FC | 63c | 4,676$2,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +96%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Manchester City FC | 26c | 3,846$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 205 | 45.4%93 W · 112 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Manchester City FC | 30c | 1,538$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.95 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Southampton FC | 74c | 1,181$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.13 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Southampton FC | 73c | 1,049$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.48 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked Manchester City FC | 34c | 870.7$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.81 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x840d…3708backed Manchester City FC | 34c | 580.28$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.29 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Manchester City FC | 37c | 492.92$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.18 | 221 | 46.2%102 W · 119 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…bebdbacked Manchester City FC | 20c | 382.18$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Manchester City FC | 11c | 317.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Southampton FC | 66c | 272.63$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 170 | 62.4%106 W · 64 L | +13.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Manchester City FC | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Manchester City FC | 34c | 186.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Manchester City FC | 38c | 144.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 592 | 47.6%282 W · 310 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Southampton FC | 61c | 127.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Southampton FC | 74c | 99.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…1363backed Manchester City FC | 34c | 98.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbf…a9ffbacked Manchester City FC | 34c | 76.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Southampton FC | 63c | 74.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Southampton FC | 63c | 74.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Southampton FC | 63c | 74.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…4d8cbacked Southampton FC | 65c | 60.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Manchester City FC | 29c | 53.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Manchester City FC | 38c | 52.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Southampton FC | 64c | 47.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Southampton FC | 74c | 39.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 125 | 43.2%54 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Southampton FC | 73c | 39.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 220 | 57.7%127 W · 93 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2527…f09cbacked Southampton FC | 70c | 39.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e9…1010backed Southampton FC | 68c | 33.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Southampton FC | 63c | 29.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 288 | 59.7%172 W · 116 L | +19.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Southampton FC | 63c | 29.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…736bbacked Southampton FC | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Southampton FC | 68c | 28.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Southampton FC | 74c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Southampton FC | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Southampton FC | 68c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…fe20backed Southampton FC | 69c | 19.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Southampton FC | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b9…3198backed Southampton FC | 78c | 13.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Southampton FC won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.