Asian League · resolved market
Will Kashima Antlers vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d892a66a1371e49b653422a7441ac4d6d067db5099e7c891b78e5b8a25a7a29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Yes | 63c | 772.15$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.15 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 44c | 611.11$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.83 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 50c | 587.92$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.44 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Yes | 32c | 499.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.99 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 36c | 453.18$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.4 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x963f…4487backed Yes | 52c | 384.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 271.15$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.48 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 21c | 241.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2080…6d80backed No | 72c | 240.5$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 17c | 214.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 935 | 35.2%329 W · 606 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 195.14$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.12 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafad…ab6dbacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…2a86backed No | 56c | 176.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 45c | 158.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked No | 43c | 156.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 47c | 147.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Yes | 30c | 134.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked No | 69c | 115.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 50c | 107.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 59c | 103.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 30c | 99.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 341 | 50.7%173 W · 168 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…0114backed No | 56c | 88.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 35c | 87.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…aadfbacked Yes | 58c | 86.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 46c | 86.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 68c | 86.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Yes | 56c | 84.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 42c | 82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 247 | 47%116 W · 131 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 28c | 75.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2413…2442backed Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Yes | 46c | 67.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa13d…f67abacked Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed No | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked No | 67c | 59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Yes | 53c | 53.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f47…ae5dbacked Yes | 31c | 53.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 31c | 49.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked No | 70c | 44.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 68c | 43.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 54c | 40.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445b…cc32backed No | 52c | 36.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ef…eb67backed Yes | 78c | 35.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f01dbacked No | 70c | 35.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 34c | 35.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 69c | 35.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 51c | 34.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 282 | 47.9%135 W · 147 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked No | 62c | 25.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed Yes | 45c | 25.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1272…37e7backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked No | 55c | 21.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 593 | 42.5%252 W · 341 L | -28.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…1fe9backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e59…bd35backed No | 70c | 17.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…99a1backed No | 70c | 17.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Yes | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kashima Antlers vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-03?No won
- Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.