Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x041d42197bb538b9077eb308ee2ac6cc4fc533652f5994bb093c26629f544dde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 20c | 3,741$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.54 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed No | 74c | 2,934$2,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.03 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 2,204$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.47 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 29c | 1,584$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 27c | 719.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 204 | 20.1%41 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked Yes | 6c | 684.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 14c | 639.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 80c | 527.02$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.92 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 405.06$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.59 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Yes | 20c | 346.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 30c | 320$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 76c | 319.31$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -54%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Yes | 8c | 189.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…994abacked No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 15c | 130.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 19c | 120.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 82 | 14.6%12 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked No | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 74c | 105.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 15c | 104.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 102.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 74c | 97.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 21c | 97.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 73c | 96.89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 73c | 92.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…cf07backed Yes | 12c | 91.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…3409backed Yes | 28c | 74.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 28c | 73.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Yes | 25c | 71.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 74c | 65.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 73c | 64.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6690…e6efbacked Yes | 27c | 61.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…0350backed Yes | 35c | 60.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…cfa9backed Yes | 31c | 58.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 72c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked Yes | 27c | 49.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…2ff6backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…dcf5backed No | 69c | 28.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked No | 73c | 27.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 80c | 27.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked No | 74c | 16.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 80c | 13.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-03?this page
- Will Kashima Antlers vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.