MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35b2fbb677d0588dbd2e09a3c86f9454d976df1b079060911450cd7b05d600ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 48c | 4,923$2,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,560.14 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 51c | 3,300$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.02 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a3…1943backed Over | 46c | 2,507$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.57 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 2,380$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.33 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 2,340$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.58 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 42c | 1,218$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.27 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 52c | 1,100$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 49c | 971.14$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.15 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 837.24$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.53 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 765.95$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 76c | 685.08$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.97 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Under | 51c | 464.87$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.5 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…61e8backed Over | 49c | 407.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.65 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 50c | 349.3$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.74 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 50c | 233.71$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.86 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 50c | 216$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Over | 51c | 209.65$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.73 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef77…f853backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 48c | 162.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 52c | 155.03$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…cd9dbacked Under | 65c | 149.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 46c | 149.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 49c | 140$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 52c | 114.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Under | 49c | 108.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Over | 47c | 103$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Under | 64c | 68.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 50c | 61.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 51.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 54c | 48.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Under | 48c | 44.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Over | 52c | 41.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Under | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Over | 52c | 36.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…ff82backed Over | 47c | 34.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 47c | 32.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 44c | 31.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 59c | 29.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Under | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 50c | 28.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…3170backed Under | 54c | 28.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Under | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 53c | 24.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 51c | 23.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e8…148abacked Under | 65c | 23.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…514bbacked Under | 54c | 23.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 48c | 22.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 54c | 21.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee BrewersWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.