MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c986c40af5b01551611c9e18b6a74acf2404a7c0ce2459c98081f586daf2d23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Washington Nationals | 52c | 1,841$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.83 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 1,055$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.32 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 968.8$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.02 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 699.03$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.53 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 535.92$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.73 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 490.92$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 375.17$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.1 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 236.94$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.73 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 234.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.09 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +59%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb4…4039backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 229.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 213.97$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 198.19$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.15 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 193.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 181.65$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 168.34$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 147.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 142.62$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 124.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 261 | 48.3%126 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 14c | 96.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 85.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 79.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 67.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 65.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…4740backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 63.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 62.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 59.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 58.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd05…61d6backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 54.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 52.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 46.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 42.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 38.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 33.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439d…3e06backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 32.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Washington Nationals | 52c | 30.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 29.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8d…8a4fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 28.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 27.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…261ebacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 26.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 24.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 21.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 21.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee BrewersWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.