Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40bc6a99e8f81889aa46cc05e5d86ad1fd0064a81d82dca02f1b0d6b239a5b1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 17c | 1,655$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.54 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,146$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.56 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 16c | 1,050$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.87 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 18c | 886.36$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.98 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 828.34$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 14c | 714.92$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.77 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 23c | 711.02$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.7 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 12c | 664.68$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 604.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 11c | 592.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Yes | 2c | 570$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 22c | 509.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 14c | 437.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e36cbacked Yes | 36c | 421.44$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 9c | 409.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 20c | 408.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 22c | 396.81$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 9c | 306.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 19c | 304.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 15c | 289.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 5c | 278.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 17c | 262.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 11c | 253.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…6e26backed No | 79c | 252.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 8c | 251.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 12c | 249.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 248.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 21c | 246.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 230.58$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 12c | 222.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 12c | 217.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4f…0f0dbacked Yes | 27c | 184.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 39c | 178.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 14c | 174.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 173.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…f290backed Yes | 9c | 163.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 161.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 14c | 159.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 19c | 150.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 15c | 139.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 18c | 130$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 119.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 109.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 16c | 106.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 23c | 105.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc2…fa1fbacked Yes | 13c | 101.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 14c | 100.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…d71bbacked Yes | 21c | 99.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…e850backed Yes | 27c | 98.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 97.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x68e5…73c0backed Yes | 19c | 93.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 90.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 13c | 89.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 51c | 77.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Yes | 52c | 74.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…c88fbacked Yes | 20c | 74.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 75c | 71.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8b…2ef7backed No | 79c | 61.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed No | 39c | 58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bb…7a45backed Yes | 31c | 48.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 62c | 46.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d0…cfb6backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 56c | 35.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…13afbacked Yes | 31c | 34.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…512ebacked No | 58c | 34.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 60c | 33.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba4…8dedbacked Yes | 45c | 33.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 31c | 33.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 31.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…88e7backed No | 80c | 31.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 68c | 22.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.