Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e7bbae41fbda6b08e648cd38eb5a1b0fb4ef1498e3a968e827471f0f14d3437
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,989$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 14c | 1,702$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.47 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,390$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.29 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,356$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.46 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 80c | 801.23$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.11 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 7c | 768.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 15c | 651.79$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…313cbacked Yes | 7c | 420.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 417.45$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.69 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 6c | 401.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 397.29$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 22c | 359.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…b490backed Yes | 19c | 320.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 76c | 284.88$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed Yes | 23c | 237.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 233.33$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 220.98$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 15c | 206.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 14c | 203$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 201$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 190$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 76c | 177.76$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 21c | 175.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4f…0f0dbacked Yes | 32c | 156.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b3…d48cbacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 147.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…438cbacked Yes | 27c | 147.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 20c | 136.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 130.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 74c | 121.02$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…ed37backed Yes | 35c | 120.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 118.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 10c | 97.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed Yes | 19c | 94.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010a…8176backed Yes | 21c | 94.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 11c | 92.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 83.92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 22c | 82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 77.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 71.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ae…9156backed No | 75c | 67.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed Yes | 40c | 58.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 37c | 56.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 21c | 51.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c27…6e68backed Yes | 20c | 50.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 76c | 44.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 43.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x925f…156cbacked Yes | 28c | 42.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 80c | 41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 38.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 71c | 29.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…05b2backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.