Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95bbf6d7707133c4fe433399482a0e32322ccf87b2f66ec0fd191813a5413bd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 2,083$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,327$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.48 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 30c | 1,286$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.32 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…b490backed Yes | 18c | 1,188$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e36cbacked Yes | 32c | 887.68$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 791.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 560.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.76 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 36c | 540$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.35 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 533.26$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x157c…cbc8backed Yes | 38c | 522.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 72c | 519.47$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.74 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 438.55$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 63c | 432.19$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.28 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 13c | 419.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 418.39$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 4c | 409.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 74c | 361.9$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 32c | 360.1$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.72 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 325.12$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 314$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 72c | 312.02$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 279.38$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 261$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4f…0f0dbacked Yes | 43c | 230.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 224$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked Yes | 37c | 199.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 196$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 68c | 193.79$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 25c | 184.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 65c | 182.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 160.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 144.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 141.94$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 139.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x010a…8176backed Yes | 35c | 132.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 39c | 125.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 125.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 125.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 39c | 124.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 63c | 123.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 122.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 54c | 121.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 38c | 121.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 71c | 104$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 96.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 93.92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 34c | 91.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 88.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 63c | 86.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 21c | 84.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 60c | 72.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 32c | 71.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 68c | 70.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 34c | 68.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 30c | 51.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe718…1e2bbacked No | 71c | 50.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…c168backed Yes | 40c | 50.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 50.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 67c | 49.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 70c | 46.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2e…7d4dbacked Yes | 37c | 43.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 29c | 40.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…bd5abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…b342backed No | 77c | 38.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 37c | 37.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 33c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 61c | 37.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 32c | 37.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 27c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 33c | 36.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 33.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 32.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 32.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 33c | 30.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 30.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…e850backed Yes | 38c | 29.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 37c | 29.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 28.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 26.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.