Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cd9659d120bcdc4c570d1282513c909fa98f0cb72298f7638a3e7596d9f867a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41c…3c9bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 985.88$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 61c | 950.79$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.59 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 32c | 693.81$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.91 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 686.74$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 626.44$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.99 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 40c | 621.15$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 34c | 594.05$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.56 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 575.87$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 49c | 550$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.57 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked No | 17c | 549.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2c…7f01backed Yes | 50c | 545.94$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 51c | 540.96$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.99 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 485.66$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 467.92$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 427$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 59c | 420.97$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.97 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 402.67$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 28c | 395.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 46c | 386.34$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.33 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…6e26backed Yes | 79c | 381.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 361$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 14c | 359.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 37c | 357.57$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.43 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 352.57$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 43c | 327.21$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed Yes | 78c | 323.36$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 31c | 321.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.12 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 62c | 307.1$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.58 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 73c | 289.83$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 285.97$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.44 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 261.12$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.1 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…b490backed Yes | 37c | 260.83$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 20c | 241.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 229.34$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.95 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 37c | 225.8$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.12 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 46c | 224.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.02 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 17c | 214.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 49c | 212.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 27c | 195.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.93 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 195.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.08 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 27c | 174.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.62 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…f5e2backed Yes | 57c | 174.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 43c | 172.53$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.94 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 78c | 150.47$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.37 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x157c…cbc8backed Yes | 17c | 124.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 63c | 123.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 120$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 120$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…6220backed No | 46c | 114.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 109.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 46c | 109.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 31c | 108.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.04 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 35c | 108.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 108$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 34c | 106.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 43c | 105.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 46c | 100.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 51c | 99.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 42c | 99.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 57c | 98.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 97.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 93.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 89.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 88.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 52c | 82.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 43c | 78.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 54c | 77.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…c168backed Yes | 52c | 75.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 49c | 75.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 42c | 73.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 49c | 69.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 69.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 19c | 69.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6631…2fc8backed No | 79c | 68.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 78c | 66.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 41c | 66.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…120bbacked Yes | 33c | 65.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 64.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 26c | 61.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…9e8ebacked No | 57c | 57.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 57.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 36c | 56.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 53c | 56.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x925f…156cbacked Yes | 54c | 55.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked No | 64c | 55.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…8cebbacked No | 21c | 54.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d31…8468backed Yes | 72c | 54.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 37c | 54.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.