Premier League · resolved market
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6274858602f91e41ee8411607883f675f2809daf33089612d420c4d26835a268
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 26,874$5,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,908.03 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Over | 75c | 25,000$18,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,750 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 34c | 9,338$3,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,129.33 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 40c | 2,168$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.17 | 755 | 42.3%319 W · 436 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba2…1650backed Under | 22c | 2,166$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.76 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 61c | 1,949$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.06 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 78c | 1,809$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.74 | 2,530 | 47.7%1,206 W · 1,324 L | +43.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 25c | 967.42$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.56 | 292 | 50%146 W · 146 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Over | 60c | 813.33$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 75c | 788.64$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8514…cbb0backed Over | 44c | 674.15$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 80c | 596.75$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.4 | 152 | 63.2%96 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 73c | 542.75$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.54 | 316 | 48.7%154 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 53c | 524.2$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.88 | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 25c | 495.11$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.33 | 395 | 55.9%221 W · 174 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 40c | 477.42$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.57 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Over | 48c | 417.33$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.79 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Over | 25c | 402.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.59 | 137 | 21.2%29 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 73c | 292.92$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 740 | 56.9%421 W · 319 L | +46.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d8…687cbacked Over | 78c | 253.03$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…db9abacked Over | 78c | 251.76$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 76c | 248.15$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.08 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 22c | 222.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.21 | 273 | 56.4%154 W · 119 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…959fbacked Over | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 63c | 207.98$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.03 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 61c | 205.82$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.91 | 411 | 60.1%247 W · 164 L | +22.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 48c | 202.24$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844d…780bbacked Under | 10c | 191.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.82 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed Under | 29c | 190.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.36 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdb…529dbacked Over | 67c | 171.53$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Under | 73c | 134.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb262…9b98backed Over | 76c | 133.26$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…d57ebacked Over | 77c | 130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed Over | 61c | 128$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Over | 44c | 116.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 23c | 115.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Over | 21c | 110.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 78c | 109.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 48c | 100.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 69c | 99.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 353 | 47.6%168 W · 185 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 77c | 98.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…5331backed Over | 76c | 97.26$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 30c | 95.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 38c | 90.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 1,161 | 57.4%666 W · 495 L | +40.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cca…69d2backed Over | 75c | 78.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 36c | 75.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…07c7backed Under | 25c | 75.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd97…b6edbacked Over | 74c | 66.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a69…62ddbacked Over | 57c | 61.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 25c | 54.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 1,589 | 53.3%847 W · 742 L | +39.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8769…04aebacked Over | 68c | 50.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 62c | 50.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 60c | 49.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 47c | 45.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce2…9787backed Over | 25c | 44.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 49c | 40.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…4d8cbacked Over | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 79c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x677c…6b53backed Over | 79c | 36.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 55c | 36.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde9e…2e77backed Under | 48c | 36.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…888fbacked Over | 56c | 34.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc84…4871backed Under | 80c | 30.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…e7f0backed Over | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 60c | 29.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Over | 44c | 28.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 45c | 27.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 964 | 45.4%438 W · 526 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 60c | 27.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 45c | 27.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 407 | 21.9%89 W · 318 L | -53.3wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac2…7e7cbacked Under | 53c | 26.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x318f…8a7cbacked Under | 42c | 25.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…c807backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa29a…1d9ebacked Over | 75c | 19.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…d9c3backed Over | 76c | 19.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Over | 68c | 16.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Leeds United FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Leeds United FC won
- Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.