Other European Leagues · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x817358a4b4e6e7be67622dff25fd7b8e29a6764a8c5bae171fe23084489da663
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 2,734$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.63 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 60c | 501.5$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.03 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 19c | 475.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 168 | 26.2%44 W · 124 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 49c | 396.11$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.87 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Under | 25c | 382.44$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 51c | 333.38$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.58 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 27c | 249.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.39 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Over | 48c | 201.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac47…d234backed Over | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 25c | 198.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Under | 54c | 194.48$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 187 | 49.7%93 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Over | 50c | 149.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Over | 59c | 147.09$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 36c | 144.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 210 | 36.7%77 W · 133 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 128.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 46c | 125$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…b49abacked Under | 40c | 121.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 42c | 109.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 347 | 60.8%211 W · 136 L | +33.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 85.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 18c | 72.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 32c | 68.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 47c | 63.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 192 | 65.1%125 W · 67 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Over | 26c | 55.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 43.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 73c | 33.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f0…5d25backed Over | 31c | 33.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 52c | 28.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 241 | 46.9%113 W · 128 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Under | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 53c | 19.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 58c | 17.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 198 | 60.1%119 W · 79 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Under | 78c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: O/U 3.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)CD Nacional won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.