Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66f956029dd2a02182f0798eb32ab92b4b6a5cb2cd9c2640a9375f77f3902468
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CD Nacionalof Sport Lisboa e Benfica, CD Nacional
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 77c | 3,759$2,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,911.4 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed CD Nacional | 20c | 3,563$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850.7 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +7.7wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +257.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CD Nacional | 53c | 2,512$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.2 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 11c | 1,032$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.12 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked CD Nacional | 58c | 570.95$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed CD Nacional | 70c | 302.35$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…b1b6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 62c | 237.71$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed CD Nacional | 23c | 229.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.81 | 383 | 58.7%225 W · 158 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…c7e8backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 48c | 194.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.58 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked CD Nacional | 40c | 182.36$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.97 | 322 | 59.3%191 W · 131 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed CD Nacional | 40c | 182.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.63 | 306 | 56.2%172 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed CD Nacional | 32c | 176.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.42 | 409 | 58.9%241 W · 168 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed CD Nacional | 33c | 168.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.15 | 133 | 60.2%80 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 42c | 146.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked CD Nacional | 23c | 118.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed CD Nacional | 23c | 118.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed CD Nacional | 23c | 106.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | +13.3wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked CD Nacional | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked CD Nacional | 38c | 97.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed CD Nacional | 37c | 96.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked CD Nacional | 39c | 84.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 151 | 57.6%87 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked CD Nacional | 23c | 84.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed CD Nacional | 27c | 83.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 383 | 59.3%227 W · 156 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked CD Nacional | 27c | 83.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 343 | 58.9%202 W · 141 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 78c | 76.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed CD Nacional | 23c | 76.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 260 | 60.8%158 W · 102 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked CD Nacional | 23c | 76.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed CD Nacional | 23c | 76.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked CD Nacional | 51c | 71.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 206 | 32%66 W · 140 L | -17.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked CD Nacional | 60c | 64.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 191 | 56.5%108 W · 83 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 80c | 47.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 77c | 37.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked CD Nacional | 52c | 30.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked CD Nacional | 75c | 20.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.