Other European Leagues · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6987e549be287611a93173095770533af6bda909c7216bd2bbe5b8a2e96710f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 48c | 4,384$2,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,117.08 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 36c | 1,951$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.1 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,634$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.43 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 1,400$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.44 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 31c | 810.82$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.4 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 66c | 680.84$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.16 | 383 | 58.7%225 W · 158 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 42c | 575.46$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.17 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Under | 52c | 388.45$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…cd92backed Under | 72c | 368.82$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.27 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 73c | 287.13$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 60c | 284.02$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.71 | 306 | 56.2%172 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 63c | 246.19$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.31 | 322 | 59.3%191 W · 131 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 65c | 227.4$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 260 | 60.8%158 W · 102 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 66c | 225.84$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.36 | 133 | 60.2%80 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 78c | 191.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 67c | 189.85$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 343 | 58.9%202 W · 141 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 67c | 174.6$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 67c | 170.67$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac1…3afebacked Under | 68c | 161.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 55c | 147.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 409 | 58.9%241 W · 168 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 136.34$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 55c | 130.19$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 383 | 59.3%227 W · 156 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 77c | 105.94$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 79c | 100.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 58c | 98.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Under | 51c | 85.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…f2b7backed Under | 58c | 67.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 26c | 62.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 210 | 36.7%77 W · 133 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 76c | 55.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 198 | 60.1%119 W · 79 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 59c | 47.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 191 | 56.5%108 W · 83 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 25c | 39.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Under | 63c | 37.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…7d31backed Over | 30c | 35.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabd5…e713backed Under | 52c | 31.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 58c | 21.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 151 | 57.6%87 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Under | 72c | 21.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…13febacked Under | 76c | 19.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 56c | 19.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1d…7132backed Under | 62c | 18.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Under | 67c | 18.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Under | 62c | 16.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: O/U 4.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)CD Nacional won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.