Other European Leagues · resolved market
SBV Excelsior vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68ed82261bea03b0b45853baf4a95f63ac3e6cd232922c9210b499c143ce16ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 3,150$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205.4 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 17c | 2,006$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.44 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 26c | 1,247$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.97 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 26c | 1,194$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.65 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 45c | 999.98$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.99 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 938.01$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.57 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 55c | 565.76$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.75 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Over | 16c | 548.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.15 | 112 | 29.5%33 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 32c | 301.56$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.27 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 27c | 299.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.08 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Under | 75c | 289.65$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.46per pick | 61cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 25c | 285.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Over | 23c | 280.42$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.92 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed Under | 76c | 259.37$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.12 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…13febacked Under | 76c | 259.37$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 77c | 200$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…32f8backed Over | 26c | 186.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.38 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 46c | 162.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.48 | 135 | 73.3%99 W · 36 L | +24.7wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 74c | 156.7$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.31 | 216 | 58.8%127 W · 89 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 14c | 150$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 69c | 142.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 133 | 62.4%83 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 15c | 137.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.61 | 130 | 36.9%48 W · 82 L | -11.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 17c | 112.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.32 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 26c | 109.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 22c | 109.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | +45.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 18c | 104.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.93 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…26f7backed Over | 53c | 91.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 21c | 89.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +283.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 63c | 84.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 145 | 61.4%89 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 67c | 55.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 63c | 40.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 79c | 36.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…8aa8backed Over | 47c | 29.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 62c | 24.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Under | 78c | 18.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeac…2970backed Under | 79c | 14.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…f56fbacked Under | 79c | 12.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SBV Excelsior vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 4.5this page
- SBV Excelsior vs. FC Utrecht: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SBV Excelsior vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 1.5Over won
- SBV Excelsior vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5Over won
- SBV Excelsior vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Utrecht (-1.5)SBV Excelsior won
- Spread: FC Utrecht (-2.5)SBV Excelsior won
- Spread: SBV Excelsior (-1.5)SBV Excelsior won
- Spread: SBV Excelsior (-2.5)SBV Excelsior won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.