NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a3e261ed9da3575e1e882dab649a9699ce27022416f90949e9d8d59b0c3a478
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 33c | 1,031$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.71 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 71c | 747.17$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.83 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 66c | 526$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.14 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 34c | 466$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.44 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 464.94$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.68 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…1695backed Under | 40c | 386.51$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.34 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 38c | 232.02$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.61 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d17…d4dcbacked Under | 64c | 219.85$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 41c | 210.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.89 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 59c | 181.1$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766a…d805backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8e…8faabacked Over | 66c | 142.48$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 23c | 93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 41c | 71.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Under | 32c | 69.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 55c | 58.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 28c | 53.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Under | 31c | 34.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Under | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…906bbacked Under | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Under | 76c | 26.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5this page
- Panthers vs. IslandersIslanders won
- Panthers vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Panthers (-1.5)Islanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.