Mls · resolved market
Austin FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb31526db8bde7e07a3a063b4ab3a656b6e003f9dfa82f6594c579bcaa5ba569
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 57c | 6,146$3,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,517.5 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 2,692$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.84 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 1,494$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.36 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 55c | 1,478$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.26 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 42c | 1,081$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.7 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 1,038$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.08 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 56c | 700.46$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.23 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 496.27$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.34 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 47c | 368$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.28 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…035cbacked Over | 31c | 323.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +312%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 52c | 321.73$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.36 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 44c | 290.68$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.9 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 54c | 287$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.64 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 44c | 261.26$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.95 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 52c | 194.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.16 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 44c | 146.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7954…665bbacked Over | 58c | 121.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Over | 45c | 82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Under | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 56c | 58.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Over | 59c | 58.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 44c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 44c | 50.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 38c | 49.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 34c | 47.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 44c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 37c | 40.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 44c | 38.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 42c | 38.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 50c | 37.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Over | 57c | 36.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 32c | 36.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 43c | 34.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 44c | 32.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 70 | 74.3%52 W · 18 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +39%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 44c | 30.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 44c | 30.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 44c | 30.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 44c | 30.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 44c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 45c | 27.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Under | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 44c | 26.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 44c | 26.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 44c | 26.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3367…ab54backed Under | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ee…ac0dbacked Under | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…6b63backed Over | 56c | 24.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…1f11backed Over | 58c | 24.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb662…df4fbacked Under | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe174…1480backed Under | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf4…f511backed Over | 56c | 23.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 44c | 23.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf63c…9975backed Over | 58c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…19dfbacked Over | 58c | 21.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdad…ef3bbacked Over | 58c | 21.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 59c | 20.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc55b…c88bbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…f6a9backed Over | 58c | 19.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251d…49d6backed Over | 58c | 18.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…b9ddbacked Over | 58c | 17.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e0…2ea2backed Over | 58c | 17.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 2.5this page
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 1.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)Austin FC won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-2.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.