Mls · resolved market
Austin FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b704234aeefb37b5b0f4450101d3483cc92e47e9da6615acfcb6cfcdef5b070
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd778…3c11backed Over | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 16c | 240$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 34c | 233.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 32c | 226$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 68c | 226$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 80c | 146$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 65c | 138.51$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…6397backed Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…821abacked Over | 15c | 96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Over | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 26c | 73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Over | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Over | 20c | 57.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 66c | 18.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5this page
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 1.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 2.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)Austin FC won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-2.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.