Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16c531625cb532b014e2fde1c7674e1a41fded7e273eee63e421d14dffe9f270
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 6,095$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.82 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed Under | 54c | 1,626$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.24 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +260.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 18c | 1,425$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.86 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 16c | 700$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.2 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +128%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Under | 64c | 684.92$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 16c | 449.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.97 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 5c | 390.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.33 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 25c | 382$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 27c | 354.43$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.99 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 16c | 291.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.95 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 15c | 288.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.73 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 17c | 276.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.04 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +99%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 74c | 251.17$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 8c | 250.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 20c | 171.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…924ebacked Over | 16c | 84.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 64c | 76.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…0144backed Under | 63c | 62.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Over | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 56c | 59.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 63c | 55.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under | 40c | 41.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…cdf0backed Over | 47c | 29.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…5bc2backed Under | 77c | 24.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.