Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc02108751ae4e3cc5f024b82b32330884ebbc37db432ebc3919aa240535140f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 30c | 8,474$2,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,931.66 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4178backed Under | 1c | 2,689$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 1c | 2,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 2,139$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.17 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 68c | 2,085$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.3 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 2,077$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.24 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 69c | 1,532$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.37 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Under | 57c | 1,266$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Under | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…bc32backed Under | 58c | 974.8$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 31c | 958.6$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.43 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 673.16$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.44 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 53c | 665.71$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.74 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 29c | 578.87$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 69c | 568.93$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.56 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 70c | 545.01$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.51 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 69c | 510.61$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 69c | 510.61$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 69c | 510.61$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 69c | 510.61$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 69c | 510.08$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.35 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 58c | 307.4$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.8 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 249.66$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.85 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 31c | 247.38$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.69 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 35c | 202.88$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.87 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 30c | 159.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.77 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Under | 71c | 138.13$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 70c | 130.61$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 75cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Under | 69c | 121.66$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 40c | 112.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 85.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 39c | 82.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Under | 18c | 81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 27c | 68.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 73c | 67.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 67c | 65.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 30c | 63.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +62%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 57c | 56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 59c | 55.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 76c | 49.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 70c | 44.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Under | 70c | 39.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 53c | 35.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…e77bbacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 45c | 29.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 43c | 25.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 70c | 21.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.