TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$187,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$219,318

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,018 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5db5…1a50backed Yes35c47,261$16,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,397.453324.2%8 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9977…3020backed No65c15,000$9,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,200250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No74c10,124$7,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,593.6675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No65c7,707$5,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,665.5948141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No77c6,419$4,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,492.452,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed No57c5,269$3,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,248.864264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes43c4,877$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,075.8334547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No65c4,368$2,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,528.833450%17 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+815.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed No66c3,486$2,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.0620845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2099…4a6fbacked Yes34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.992050%10 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes43c2,933$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.4133945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No65c2,274$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.831,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8401…0fa1backed Yes9c2,101$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.08742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes5c1,886$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.34916.3%8 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No66c1,817$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.453,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6945…873dbacked No58c1,681$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.896149.2%30 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x300c…7708backed Yes36c1,635$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked No66c1,479$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.636842.6%29 W · 39 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7abf…8dd3backed No66c1,401$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.92580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfe…294cbacked Yes6c1,384$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.04812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Yes5c1,321$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7521355.4%118 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Yes6c1,201$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8120548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed No66c1,144$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.3418644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked No66c1,088$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.0314652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed No65c1,081$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.297750.6%39 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe521…9caebacked Yes10c1,069$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes43c965.8$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.2924050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes3c942.58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.258932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf171…85febacked Yes41c941.07$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No56c860$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.228755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed No66c742.12$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.3217749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed No66c742.12$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.328251.2%42 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69dd…1964backed No67c731.49$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.396159%36 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yes2c699.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8514315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x258f…4493backed Yes7c677.94$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.467424.3%18 W · 56 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes18c592.57$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.1664043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked No68c576.94$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.621770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13f7…13adbacked Yes40c518.15$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked No58c504.21$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.777458.1%43 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No56c499.96$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.7629855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Yes8c487.62$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.016854.4%37 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes42c468$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.5624322.2%54 W · 189 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29f8…cfb1backed Yes43c454.31$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.15455.6%30 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39b3…53b9backed Yes43c442.34$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.22352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No56c433.78$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.011,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfece…ef64backed Yes43c416.98$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.33826.3%10 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes43c416.47$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.0869851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cae…fdc1backed No58c403.37$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.411442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No56c399.99$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17623046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes42c386.14$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.177646.1%35 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a2c…dfe7backed No57c374.08$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.851346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed No56c362.32$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.425168.6%35 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed No66c343.68$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.8511148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked No58c336.14$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.188050%40 W · 40 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6af…b5efbacked No58c336.14$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.186147.5%29 W · 32 L-8.5wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-28.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked No66c296.85$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.9317852.8%94 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47a5…6834backed Yes35c288.36$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe87…6fc0backed No64c288.31$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.793756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked No57c283.47$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.674757.4%27 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes4c282.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c04…1844backed Yes36c281.29$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.271450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7418…251fbacked No69c274.76$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.766761.2%41 W · 26 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4453…3c27backed Yes44c240.46$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.77728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-59.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7242…ac6fbacked Yes7c236.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.521450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4791…07f8backed Yes42c229.81$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.52119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.28per pick37cpaid-76.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xabd5…e713backed No62c223.92$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.76757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e4d…b339backed Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf60b…c18ebacked No57c194.84$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.782231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-35.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfe8…3684backed Yes44c193.28$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.04966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+70.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Yes9c189.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0214726.5%39 W · 108 L-0.5wins0.00per pick27cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes44c188.75$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0555058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xffff…4413backed No79c174.98$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.112141.3%50 W · 71 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb6c…1bfabacked Yes35c167.49$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.621050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Yes30c165.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.695756.1%32 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No57c156$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0856951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7861…3d27backed Yes34c141.24$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0260%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Yes28c137.47$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.998636%31 W · 55 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa8…6e47backed No66c131.8$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.81250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Yes43c122$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4615747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91f0…c57abacked No58c117.73$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.456457.8%37 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Yes36c113.82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Yes43c113$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.593167.7%21 W · 10 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+34.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee8a…69acbacked Yes43c112.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.292152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01d4…1f9cbacked Yes43c112.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.29728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa24d…38b2backed Yes35c108.44$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.451533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7418…ab9fbacked Yes34c105.64$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.923748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4210942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e40…7d1fbacked Yes44c98.84$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.492321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No59c97.54$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9913555.6%75 W · 60 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ffe…9150backed No77c96.05$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.032941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc57f…cfffbacked No64c91.35$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.89475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3f6…f0d9backed Yes43c89.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0dc…ffadbacked No58c87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.546056.7%34 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a13…db82backed Yes43c86.44$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.171435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed No58c84.03$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2917547.4%83 W · 92 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed No59c82.66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8911250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Yes16c81.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2411356.6%64 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed No61c78.75$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.71955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84bb…25d3backed Yes38c70.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9f…b23bbacked No58c68.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.287361.6%45 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.