TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$238,595
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$239,595

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,595 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5db5…1a50backed Yes29c88,046$25,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,533.473324.2%8 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes1c55,357$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.992,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No73c19,925$14,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,423.993,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked Yes30c17,230$5,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,169.033743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No70c16,511$11,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,884.821,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No70c16,439$11,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,940.8275142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed No72c9,841$7,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,772.5620845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No69c8,666$5,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,705.911,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed No71c5,831$4,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.7121355.4%118 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe87…6fc0backed No71c4,274$3,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.553756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0075…5f10backed Yes41c3,500$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-40.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed No70c3,437$2,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.16744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked No72c3,404$2,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.5820548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed No72c3,403$2,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.9518644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0a3…e4b7backed Yes29c2,719$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Yes41c2,327$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8987…02f3backed No70c2,227$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.721258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No71c2,114$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.9648658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed No70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6005168.6%35 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf07…e601backed Yes16c2,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3303548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No71c1,870$1,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.3169851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58d4…aa98backed Yes30c1,709$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed No70c1,699$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.715747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4306…618abacked Yes24c1,480$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.25044%22 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed No70c1,341$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.316549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No70c1,155$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.181,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked No71c1,092$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.5814652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Yes30c990.46$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.831225%3 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-62%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed No70c982$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.68158%47 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed No70c982$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.66549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed No70c982$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.66647%31 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed No70c982$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.65349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No70c883.8$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.145745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No71c864.08$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.5848141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes17c848.1$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.588932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7eb…615bbacked Yes5c793.08$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.71742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed No70c785.6$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.685743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed No71c691.97$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.6717749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed No71c691.97$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.678251.2%42 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b71…4e79backed Yes30c645.05$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.52825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes30c638.67$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.66940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed No73c637.47$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.4364043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked No71c610$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.94757.4%27 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74bb…1759backed Yes24c600.1$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.061338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick26cpaid+40.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No70c589.2$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.765745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes19c570.82$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1224050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No69c567.93$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.0638748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked No73c566.85$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.5914055%77 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked No70c499.96$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.997050%35 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No70c460$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13828755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Yes30c454.67$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.41752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+41.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No70c453.42$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.8129855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x835c…8e3bbacked Yes30c420.81$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.391844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked No70c412.44$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.738950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked No70c412.44$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.738851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Yes5c394.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7310554.3%57 W · 48 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cfe…294cbacked Yes25c382$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd6…d9f7backed Yes19c365.4$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0480%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde80…d8b9backed Yes30c364.04$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.21425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-21.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked No70c363.34$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1098949.4%44 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfbf…8c7bbacked Yes6c340.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed No71c334.92$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.1311148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked Yes30c319.33$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.811843.2%51 W · 67 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd121…50c8backed Yes30c319.33$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.83941%16 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86be…4490backed Yes30c303.37$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.013941%16 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033b…5e3fbacked No72c302.81$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.693562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed No70c299.96$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.995149%25 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed No70c294.6$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.385046%23 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked No70c294.6$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.385650%28 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5941…9583backed Yes36c268.97$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Yes30c248.75$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No71c245.88$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.363645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes30c242.13$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4648146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes22c238.3$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Yes18c237.7$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.793167.7%21 W · 10 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+34.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes30c210.61$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1649647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffff…4413backed No77c203.66$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9312141.3%50 W · 71 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd03…df4abacked Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484240.5%17 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3be…c163backed Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick60cpaid-45.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes30c200$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596442.2%27 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x694c…eb70backed Yes30c196.39$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.922218.2%4 W · 18 L-4.4wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-45.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes21c195.38$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.945442.6%23 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes30c191.6$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.484924.5%12 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f42…a8febacked No65c180.74$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.26862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No73c176.2$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.839857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc826…fcb3backed No71c174.45$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.591163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed No70c172.2$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.666446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76c8…68ecbacked Yes30c161.36$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.89742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b90…30b6backed Yes30c161.02$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.895250%26 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3319…ba79backed Yes30c160.93$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.731346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe977…fcd8backed Yes19c140.21$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.641030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked No76c139.93$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.715756.1%32 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5465…ba43backed No71c138.39$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.134062.5%25 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc57f…cfffbacked No71c138.39$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.13475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb5d…d917backed Yes42c137.89$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.91650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No59c127.66$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.349742.3%41 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb72e…7c3bbacked Yes18c110.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.97933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4512…5d41backed Yes30c98.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.76443.8%28 W · 36 L+7.1wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+44.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8fdc…47a4backed Yes24c98.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.04540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-43.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48aa…2eeebacked Yes30c96.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.21040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.