Asian League · resolved market
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7680aa04865ec171e6fc1047e88316b6aa8e6a8ba3c28788e5088a12c5d5c3b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31c1…7047backed No | 61c | 5,334$3,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,064.73 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 27c | 3,264$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.42 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 38c | 2,420$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.87 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 38c | 1,487$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.87 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…f944backed No | 65c | 1,415$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,324$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.94 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 38c | 1,005$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.05 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 66c | 999.83$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.94 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 47c | 887.98$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 58c | 555.83$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.07 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 67c | 469.8$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.13 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 41c | 439.39$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.94 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 41c | 439.39$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.94 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…3dadbacked Yes | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 41c | 299.82$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 119 | 31.9%38 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 58c | 295.62$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.76 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…7650backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 59c | 279.98$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.09 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 67c | 275.48$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.84 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Yes | 23c | 253.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963f…4487backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…6651backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 66c | 166.9$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…d028backed No | 66c | 166.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 154.79$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 37c | 150.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 37c | 127$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 33c | 109.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked No | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…4b25backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 34c | 99.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 68c | 88.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked No | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 65c | 76.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed Yes | 28c | 71.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 55c | 71.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Yes | 34c | 67.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 53 | 73.6%39 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 35c | 64.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 36c | 63.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 47c | 61.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes | 28c | 60.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +203%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 40c | 59.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 38c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 57c | 55.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…ec88backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 36c | 54.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 41c | 49.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 55c | 47.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Yes | 42c | 47.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e71…7913backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…5b6fbacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Yes | 39c | 42.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 71c | 36.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Yes | 44c | 33.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 53c | 28.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 27.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 65c | 26.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 61c | 24.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4227…6c28backed No | 67c | 24.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 63c | 21.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 58c | 20.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-03?this page
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-03?Yes won
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.