Asian League · resolved market
Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8462656f62052df9b35d8e5116b97d2ba792c8a763fb8e0dfa4fccaa67bddcff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 1,101$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.13 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -71%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 902.93$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.47 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Yes | 27c | 741.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -56%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6d…e537backed No | 69c | 447.11$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 29c | 380.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.36 | 136 | 31.6%43 W · 93 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked No | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 24c | 307.78$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 119 | 31.9%38 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…3dadbacked Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 12c | 198.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 24c | 172.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x963f…4487backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2413…2442backed Yes | 34c | 123.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…0114backed Yes | 10c | 109.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Yes | 28c | 104.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 69c | 98.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked Yes | 17c | 91.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 21c | 83.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 24c | 83.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 24c | 82.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 43c | 81.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed Yes | 27c | 76.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 73.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Yes | 27c | 72.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 74c | 70.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 28c | 62.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 53.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb161…9132backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 75c | 48.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 23c | 45.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…86a0backed Yes | 26c | 40.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked No | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 30c | 39.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…b9debacked Yes | 28c | 36.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…7571backed No | 67c | 29.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked No | 72c | 28.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 72c | 27.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 72c | 27.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked No | 74c | 23.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 61c | 23.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…45d6backed No | 72c | 22.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed No | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 18.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 73c | 16.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 73c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 71c | 15.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw?this page
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-03?Yes won
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.