Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9bbe3a897d77b144adb07b9902e621295a5f255cc5e9ca999b4a760976f11d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 39c | 14,517$5,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,672.66 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 9c | 9,879$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.78 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 8,051$4,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,297.01 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 61c | 3,001$1,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.44 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 35c | 1,921$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.11 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 61c | 1,913$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.79 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee2…c9cdbacked Over | 39c | 1,235$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 67c | 1,167$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.54 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 61c | 1,084$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.77 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 981.67$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.9 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 61c | 787.4$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.93 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 60c | 754.32$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.65 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 41c | 715.73$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.45 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 61c | 657.43$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.56 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 59c | 636.88$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.12 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +8.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 60c | 634.38$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.81 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 61c | 614.99$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.21 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 60c | 596.73$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.69 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 38c | 549.25$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.72 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -7.1wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 61c | 471.68$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.96 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 63c | 416$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.72 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 400.34$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.42 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 61c | 400.15$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.01 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 386.47$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.92 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 61c | 379.01$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.43 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 71c | 374.37$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.8 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 41c | 352.9$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.69 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 34c | 316.64$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 60c | 300.08$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.08 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 238.79$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 29c | 188.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 11c | 172.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 61c | 157$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 64c | 131.3$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 63c | 129.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 60c | 120.33$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3908…20eabacked Under | 59c | 118.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 29c | 115.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…abfbbacked Under | 57c | 111.09$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 61c | 104.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 47c | 96.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 45c | 83.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 38c | 70.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 42c | 65.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 60c | 59.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 29c | 52.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Under | 61c | 50.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 51c | 45.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 66c | 44.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Under | 80c | 37.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…e77bbacked Under | 56c | 34.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 60c | 32.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 69c | 30.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Over | 68c | 27.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…08a7backed Over | 70c | 24.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…2bf2backed Under | 62c | 20.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 73c | 19.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.