Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7405baee890f33e6019247c3bb125820014aa76767384bbda728cc24bd068107
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 31c | 1,347$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.74 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee2…c9cdbacked Over | 21c | 1,134$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 21c | 989.48$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.48 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 61c | 640.39$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.75 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 23c | 501.37$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.31 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 76c | 450$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 70c | 321.48$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 309.99$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 13c | 272.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 38c | 253.37$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 78c | 220$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 36c | 201$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 78c | 153.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 19c | 65.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 29c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 34.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 80c | 30.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…e809backed Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…30d9backed Under | 75c | 29.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 58c | 23.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 79c | 22.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 62c | 21.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.