TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$473,141
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$648,045

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $473,141 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3333…15bdbacked Over50c109,611$54,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,805.361376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+39.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under50c72,855$36,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,274.7653645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under49c59,702$29,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,168.53,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd12c…f2d4backed Over49c44,724$21,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,809.47650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Over51c30,000$15,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,699.964854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under50c20,904$10,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,493.2338748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Under50c20,686$10,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,342.781163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+44.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x83d2…d196backed Over52c17,638$9,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,466.246453.1%34 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde18…83bcbacked Under51c14,706$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,500650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8566…c626backed Over50c10,001$5,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,000.542236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-31.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under47c7,595$3,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,569.5110553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Under50c5,037$2,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,518.613268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea00…c1f1backed Under48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4002759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0def…4ddbbacked Over48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.942450%12 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Over53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.841566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under51c3,800$1,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,93856547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bdf…56f5backed Under43c3,469$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.363941%16 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Under49c3,453$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,692.164650%23 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdae0…836abacked Under51c3,333$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Over53c3,218$1,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.553452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Under48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4407057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30a3…1943backed Under51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+21%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked Under47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4105152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Over51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.991435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Over65c2,434$1,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.91553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+55.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under49c2,425$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.334144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Under47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9402661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Over53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.791947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee02…8132backed Under5c1,600$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821241.7%5 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.28per pick14cpaid+188.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over49c1,437$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.239856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Over53c1,323$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.813246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over50c1,256$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.2418545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Over53c1,147$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.177254.2%39 W · 33 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under43c1,086$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.811,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Over52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48015847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f07…0170backed Over29c994$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.681127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf425…be71backed Over52c963.4$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.432356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+37.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over52c882$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.3610361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under49c873.91$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.0935856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4df2…8621backed Over53c819.78$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.841428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6203…5544backed Under50c743.98$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.992657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Under11c637.78$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.166035%21 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under49c599.99$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29724258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under50c578.7$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.3512832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under53c566$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.985145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1263…fddcbacked Over49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2551145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…cc36backed Under10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc461…83dbbacked Under10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over50c480$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2403857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under51c433.66$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.5322854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under51c412$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.1217251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under50c374.29$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.1421540.9%88 W · 127 L-15.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under50c373.19$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.4330647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Under50c333$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f7…6213backed Over45c317.78$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.782100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over49c302.04$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.0411857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4de1…22a0backed Under10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30160%0 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12e8…2cecbacked Under10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368c…9f72backed Over52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over74c270.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2719055.3%105 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over31c267.59$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.562,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3bc…03efbacked Over40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under51c250$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.548146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under51c250$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.563645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under51c250$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.549647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53eb…90ebbacked Under45c244.44$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f37…281bbacked Over42c237.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.053823.7%9 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under48c225$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10815453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x635d…c863backed Under51c221.71$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.07425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under48c218$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6414355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0f6…4892backed Over46c217.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.046645.5%30 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea22…0b78backed Over50c215.55$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c9…3a79backed Under47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56a8…3639backed Under48c208$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.843339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9613957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x216b…d5e6backed Over55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+32.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Under57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fc…f4b0backed Over51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983100%3 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+309.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Over69c199.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked Under50c198.03$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.037439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe12…c26fbacked Over50c193.53$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d5c…1768backed Over47c190$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.73129%9 W · 22 L-7.2wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-47%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe2b8…c88bbacked Under51c187.37$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9df0…9a65backed Under54c184$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.68475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Under51c180$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.811543.5%50 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under48c180$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.412356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under48c180$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.412858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Over38c162.79$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.819139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3926…5863backed Over17c162.27$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.431233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c9…e194backed Under20c160$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d6…bdc2backed Under53c156.6$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5df4…4eacbacked Over51c147.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.061050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997b…801ebacked Under10c146.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.68955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+26.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7509…d031backed Under54c146$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.34742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88ad…9e5fbacked Under72c138.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under57c129.15$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6116850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x084e…71d6backed Over51c124.26$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.89425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over49c122.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4522157%126 W · 95 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.