Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc551c3e74f6efb0340708ee9dd1cf65544fe015e4983ba10ee81edf03c7a1628
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 7,666$2,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,428.29 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 67c | 5,091$3,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.87 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 3,631$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.12 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 26c | 2,086$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.58 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 67c | 2,052$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.83 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Under | 40c | 1,988$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.03 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf425…be71backed Over | 32c | 1,166$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 28c | 1,067$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.82 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 31c | 999.8$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.94 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 31c | 999$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.69 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 2c | 827$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed Under | 72c | 799.19$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec2…3987backed Over | 2c | 694$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 52c | 558.6$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.14 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 68c | 367$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.44 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 325.79$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.23 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed Over | 15c | 274$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Under | 68c | 272.05$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.06 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 71c | 215.11$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 67c | 201.12$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 30c | 191.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…3a58backed Under | 70c | 173$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…4e3dbacked Over | 27c | 168.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 58c | 137.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…a9dcbacked Under | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3926…5863backed Over | 24c | 122.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 46c | 113.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Under | 71c | 112.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 68c | 112.42$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7bb5backed Under | 79c | 102.53$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…a4e6backed Under | 69c | 97.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…b3edbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 70c | 85.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…8293backed Under | 68c | 73.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 72c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 34c | 67.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 33c | 62.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 33c | 60.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 30c | 54.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2246…e958backed Over | 29c | 41.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 37c | 41.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…c8cebacked Under | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…cd81backed Under | 75c | 38.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 30c | 38.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 33c | 36.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…27d6backed Under | 37c | 35.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd465…f694backed Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 52c | 23.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df0…9a65backed Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…fd33backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 67c | 17.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Under | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.