Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d491c0672a637aa46a2cd830c4e48d816ecc04886ca3a3a8901d526b188228e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x408c…9a1dbacked Yes | 65c | 3,328$2,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 44c | 2,430$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 36c | 1,605$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.91 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 36c | 1,352$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.18 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 35c | 1,125$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 36c | 1,123$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.74 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…0de9backed Yes | 64c | 1,111$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.87 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Yes | 64c | 935.94$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 36c | 581.07$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.69 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked No | 36c | 543.75$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af4…f9e0backed Yes | 39c | 317.69$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 60c | 281.46$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.45 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 62c | 249.84$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 38c | 179.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.59 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 55c | 162.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Yes | 62c | 161.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b71…6269backed Yes | 65c | 154.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 66c | 151.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 40c | 127.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked No | 37c | 100.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.58 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…f67dbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…e1b2backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6c…2bf7backed No | 39c | 90.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c91abacked No | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed Yes | 61c | 82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked No | 37c | 81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Yes | 64c | 79.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 75c | 47.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…1879backed Yes | 65c | 45.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…011abacked No | 46c | 43.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked No | 36c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…8a9ebacked Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 59c | 37.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd019…4ee0backed No | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…32aebacked No | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9e…10bebacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed No | 37c | 28.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d4…7661backed Yes | 62c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 44c | 24.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1c…afe2backed Yes | 60c | 22.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.