Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7585d82cba8b438033f3662e80b93491ac1d5e0b2d22ba4edef82461e3bb1c19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 28c | 5,866$1,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.16 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 28c | 5,091$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.47 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 72c | 4,014$2,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.37 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 67c | 3,387$2,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.7 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 71c | 2,500$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 73c | 1,369$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.57 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 18c | 1,150$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.81 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 701.13$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.95 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 27c | 619$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.51 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 28c | 347$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 74c | 341.89$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 267.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 72c | 257.14$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 29c | 206.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Over | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…2663backed Under | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 72c | 177.34$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 70c | 174.29$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…2f03backed Over | 72c | 166.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 65c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbf…06d3backed Over | 72c | 105.56$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…f67dbacked Over | 70c | 100.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…3215backed Over | 73c | 89.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 27c | 79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 38c | 78.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d9…a144backed Under | 27c | 48.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Over | 71c | 35.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 33c | 35.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 71c | 34.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…3af6backed Over | 75c | 33.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 69c | 32.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…f023backed Over | 73c | 29.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…8f5ebacked Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…e920backed Over | 71c | 26.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…e5ccbacked Over | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…aa4bbacked Over | 68c | 23.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc891…cf27backed Over | 72c | 22.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.