Other European Leagues · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1136b4e8c1e584af28e49ffa09b13fe1903dd46e3cba4145c96771daab241dcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 7,276$2,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,230.91 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 2,235$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.23 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 24c | 1,492$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.83 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 1,369$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.88 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 31c | 781.23$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.66 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 41c | 590.12$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.89 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed Under | 6c | 524.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 37c | 520.11$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.67 | 168 | 26.2%44 W · 124 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 37c | 454.73$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.93 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 16c | 415.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.12 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +12.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 63c | 298.4$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.41 | 347 | 60.8%211 W · 136 L | +33.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 63c | 214$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 20c | 190.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 60c | 189.71$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 338 | 58.6%198 W · 140 L | +30.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 74c | 186.76$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.2 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 44c | 169$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 28c | 156.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.01 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 69c | 142.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 133 | 62.4%83 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 23c | 111.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Over | 68c | 107.43$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 73c | 79.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 26c | 77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 495 | 28.7%142 W · 353 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Over | 29c | 43.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 69c | 42.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 71c | 41.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Over | 35c | 36.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 66c | 34.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 61c | 32.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Under | 74c | 30.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 69c | 29.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 409 | 58.9%241 W · 168 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2068…d19bbacked Over | 48c | 27.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 51c | 26.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95ed…b7adbacked Over | 50c | 25.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 63c | 23.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 155 | 68.4%106 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Over | 68c | 19.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 80c | 18.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 77c | 14.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 351 | 63.5%223 W · 128 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.