Other European Leagues · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04834d234e0bef63bd22ede144ed0aab22138d56c532fb9ce7c91edb2921849c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 5c | 577.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 69c | 490.67$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.52 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 31c | 205.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 16c | 119.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 69c | 99.56$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 31c | 75.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e7…0169backed Under | 33c | 72.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 495 | 28.7%142 W · 353 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd4…c292backed Under | 33c | 63.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 69c | 56.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 318 | 60.4%192 W · 126 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 52.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 33c | 40.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 32c | 32.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 67c | 23.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Over | 69c | 21.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked Over | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 72 | 76.4%55 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Over | 68c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.