Other European Leagues · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x603078fa46fd018df9b0755c12507c2f116f156e1733614ebf200d54697bdbb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 45c | 3,081$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.37 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 1,651$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.21 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed Under | 6c | 1,555$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 1,202$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 52c | 1,015$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.12 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 17c | 868.52$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.62 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 52c | 648.67$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.66 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf541…ac67backed Over | 65c | 602.05$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 521.47$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.01 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 71c | 436.72$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.28 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 47c | 327.75$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Under | 14c | 284.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e07…80d1backed Under | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…47abbacked Under | 56c | 173.24$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 29c | 132.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 23c | 127.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 54c | 108.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 43c | 100.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 61c | 93.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | +45.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd53c…5194backed Over | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 55c | 53.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 57c | 46.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 347 | 60.8%211 W · 136 L | +33.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 38c | 38.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…e7f0backed Under | 49c | 34.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 60c | 34.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 338 | 58.6%198 W · 140 L | +30.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06a5…5b4ebacked Over | 44c | 32.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Over | 45c | 32.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 54c | 25.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 62c | 23.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | +13.3wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Under | 56c | 19.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.