Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb736f8d9def1c280988a806759613e0c95c90f2279eade28ac4c86b9a8ee5857
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 47c | 6,762$3,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,178.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 18c | 5,810$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.29 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbf…d37fbacked Over | 80c | 4,800$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 54c | 1,757$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.46 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 71c | 1,553$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.25 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +346.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 78c | 974.15$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.31 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 31c | 928.21$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.58 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 14c | 758.72$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.22 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 21c | 744.2$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.48 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 30c | 530.9$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.64 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 20c | 517.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…f549backed Under | 46c | 483.8$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 24c | 462.18$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.27 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 12c | 449.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 77c | 440.7$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 23c | 435.47$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.86 | 129 | 63.6%82 W · 47 L | +12.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Over | 73c | 405.61$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.52 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +7.8wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 64c | 391.94$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.72 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 19c | 388.11$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 53c | 340.44$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.01 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 20c | 335.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 18c | 276$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 73c | 275.19$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 54c | 250.84$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.44 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…bac6backed Under | 46c | 249.64$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Over | 53c | 238.37$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.03 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 24c | 235.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e19…1495backed Over | 74c | 197.43$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 23c | 195.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 125 | 56%70 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…6f10backed Over | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Over | 53c | 169.02$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 53c | 168.85$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 123 | 67.5%83 W · 40 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xded4…1e6dbacked Under | 46c | 159.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.54 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 43c | 143$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 67c | 142.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 38c | 141.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 53c | 138.17$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Under | 28c | 136.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 15c | 136.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Under | 20c | 133.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 18c | 111$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 44c | 108.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 45c | 106$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 45c | 106$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Under | 28c | 102.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Under | 48c | 99.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…cd92backed Under | 57c | 97.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Under | 44c | 95.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 26c | 95.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…6d03backed Under | 13c | 94.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 57c | 85.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 21c | 81.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Over | 69c | 66.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 29c | 60.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Over | 71c | 59.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…e2d0backed Under | 24c | 58.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…dde4backed Over | 71c | 58.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d8…5be4backed Over | 71c | 42.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 71c | 40.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Over | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 54c | 28.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 74c | 24.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 60c | 21.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd044…7f47backed Over | 53c | 20.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…99dabacked Over | 72c | 16.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Over | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Paris FC (-1.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Paris FC (-2.5)Paris FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.